Outlook for Nov 2026 – Jan 2027, published 26 Oct 2026. General guidance only, not business, legal or financial advice. Always check the tender and the local rules yourself.
Where to bid, where to watch and where to wait in the next three months. One short call per region, with the reasons and the sources.
The calls at a glance
GO Good time to bid. Plenty of work and no big new risk.
WATCH Bid with care. Check the risks and costs first.
SKIP Wait for now. The risk or cost is too high for most operators.
Region by region
GO Latin America and Caribbean
The southern summer is the main flying season in much of South America. High copper and gold prices support mining survey work, but expect more competition from northern and Australian operators.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- November to March is usually the best flying season in Chile and Argentina.
- In central Brazil the rainy season usually starts between late October and mid-November.
- The Atlantic hurricane season ends on 30 November. December to April is usually the dry season in the Caribbean and northern South America.
This season (from the sources below)
- Brazil votes in its presidential run-off on 25 Oct 2026. The new president takes office on 5 Jan 2027. Federal tenders may slow during the change.
- Brazil's science ministry warns of drought and fire risk in the north and north-east, and floods in the south, because of El Niño.
- In Chile, CONAF has already tendered its fire aircraft for the 2026–27 season.
Sources: Brazil electoral court (TSE) ↗ · Brazil Senate news ↗ · Brazil science ministry (MCTI), El Niño ↗ · CONAF air tanker tender listing ↗
GO North America
More open tenders on our site are in the US and Canada than anywhere else. Federal money is in place until 11 Dec 2026, but there is a risk of a government shutdown after that.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- Winter slows survey flying in Canada and the northern US. The southern states can keep flying.
- Many agencies use the winter to plan and tender for spring and summer work.
This season (from the sources below)
- The US budget law runs to 11 Dec 2026 and does not allow new programmes. Watch for delays to new federal contracts.
- Canada's exploration budgets are up 37% to $3.14 billion in 2026, mostly for gold (S&P Global). Good for next summer's geophysics.
- NOAA's winter outlook: wetter in the southern US, drier in the northern Rockies and High Plains.
Sources: Congressional Research Service ↗ · S&P Global, 20 Oct 2026 ↗ · NOAA CPC winter outlook ↗
GO Europe
Many mapping agencies tender in winter for flying in spring and summer 2027. Half of the European tenders open on our site are survey and mapping.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- November to February has few good flying days in most of Europe.
- Winter, with no leaves on the trees, is a good window for LiDAR in the lowlands when there is no snow.
This season (from the sources below)
- There is no general ceasefire in Ukraine. EASA warnings for Russian and Ukrainian airspace run to 31 Jan 2027.
- High fuel prices raise the cost of every flight hour.
Sources: EASA conflict zone bulletins ↗ · ISW, 24 Oct 2026 ↗
WATCH Africa
Gold and copper prices still support mining survey, and the dry season is starting in West Africa. But security risks and high fuel costs make many jobs harder.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- In West Africa and the Sahel, November to April is usually the dry flying season. Harmattan dust from December to February can stop photo work.
- In southern Africa, November to March is usually the rainy season.
This season (from the sources below)
- The southern Africa forecast (SADC) shows drier than normal rain for much of the region from October 2026 to March 2027. That can mean more flying days, but also drought.
- EASA safety warnings are active for Mali, Sudan, Libya and Somalia.
Sources: SADC seasonal outlook ↗ · EASA conflict zone bulletins ↗ · S&P Global, 20 Oct 2026 ↗
SKIP Middle East
The US–Iran war and Houthi attacks make most survey flying unsafe now. Airspace is closed or restricted in many countries.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- In normal years, November to March is the cool season and the best time to fly here.
This season (from the sources below)
- EASA safety warnings cover Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
- Houthi attacks hit Saudi oil sites and airports in October 2026. Riyadh airport only partly reopened on 25 Oct 2026 and airlines are extending cancellations.
Sources: EASA conflict zone bulletins ↗ · CNBC, 23 Oct 2026 ↗ · The National, 25 Oct 2026 ↗
WATCH Asia
The dry season is starting in South Asia, and El Niño brings fire and haze work in Indonesia. Few Asian tenders reach us, and some airspace is restricted.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- In South Asia, after the monsoon (about November to May) is usually the main survey season.
- The typhoon season in the western Pacific usually ends in November or December.
This season (from the sources below)
- Indonesia's weather agency (BMKG) expects El Niño to last into early 2027, with a long dry season and fire risk in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
- Since 16 Oct 2026 BMKG has flown weather-modification (cloud seeding and dry ice) flights against smoke in South Sumatra, with military aircraft and two civil Cessna Caravans.
- EASA safety warnings are active for Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan.
Sources: BMKG, El Niño ↗ · BMKG, dry ice flights in South Sumatra ↗ · EASA conflict zone bulletins ↗
WATCH Oceania and Australia
The survey season in northern Australia is ending as the wet season starts. The fire season is starting, but most fire aircraft contracts for 2026/27 are already signed.
Season (typical pattern, not news)
- Northern Australia's wet season is usually November to April. Survey flying there mostly stops.
- Southern Australia's summer (December to February) is the main fire season.
This season (from the sources below)
- The national fire agencies (AFAC) forecast higher than normal fire risk in parts of New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
- The national fleet (NAFC) has 175 aircraft under contract for 2026/27, listed in August. Most fire aircraft for this season are already booked.
Sources: AFAC spring 2026 bushfire outlook ↗ · NAFC national fleet 2026/27 ↗
Knock-on effects around the world
- Australia's main survey season in the north is about April to October, in the dry season. In those months many Australian survey aircraft and crews are busy at home, so fewer of them bid in Brazil and other southern countries. From November the northern wet season starts and some of them become free. Expect more competition in South America and southern Africa. (typical pattern, not news)
- In the northern winter, snow and short days slow survey flying in Canada, the northern US, northern Europe and Russia. Some northern operators send aircraft south for the southern summer. Expect more bidders on southern tenders from November to March. (typical pattern, not news)
- North American fire aircraft go to Australia for the southern summer. The 2026/27 Australian national fleet list includes large air tankers from Coulson Aviation and Neptune Aviation. NAFC national fleet 2026/27 ↗
- High fuel prices from the Middle East war raise flying costs everywhere, not only in the Middle East. IATA fuel monitor ↗
What moves tenders now
War and closed airspace
The war between the US and Iran keeps airspace closed or restricted over Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. EASA safety warnings for these areas run at least to 16 Nov 2026.
Sources: EASA conflict zone bulletins ↗
Fuel
Jet fuel is very expensive. IATA says the world average price was 111% higher than a year before (week to 9 Oct 2026). Brent oil closed at $116.72 on 23 Oct 2026, a six-month high. Check if the tender allows a fuel price adjustment.
Sources: IATA fuel monitor ↗ · Aviation Week, 19 Oct 2026 ↗ · CNBC, 23 Oct 2026 ↗
Gold and copper
Gold was about $4,008 an ounce on 23 Oct 2026. That is below its January 2026 record, but still very high. Copper was $14,415 a tonne on the LME on 23 Oct 2026. S&P Global says mining companies plan $16.5 billion for exploration in 2026, up from $12.4 billion in 2025. Copper exploration budgets are the highest since 2012. This is good news for airborne geophysics.
Sources: Gold price, Oct 2026 ↗ · World Gold Council, Jan 2026 ↗ · LME copper cash prices ↗ · S&P Global, 20 Oct 2026 ↗
Weather: strong El Niño
NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027. El Niño often brings drought and fires to Indonesia, northern Brazil and parts of Australia and southern Africa, and more rain to southern Brazil and the southern US.
Sources: NOAA CPC, 8 Oct 2026 ↗
Budgets and elections
US federal money is approved only until 11 Dec 2026. US midterm elections are on 3 Nov 2026. Brazil votes in its presidential run-off on 25 Oct 2026, and the new term starts on 5 Jan 2027. New governments and short budgets often slow new tenders.
Sources: Congressional Research Service ↗ · USA.gov: midterm elections ↗ · Brazil Senate news, 23 Oct 2026 ↗
Exchange rates and sanctions
Many tenders pay in local money. If the local money falls after you bid, you earn less in dollars or euros. Check the rate before you price. Also check sanctions lists before you bid on work linked to Russia, Iran or other sanctioned countries.
Sources: US Federal Reserve exchange rates ↗ · US sanctions search (OFAC) ↗ · EU sanctions map ↗
Seasons are typical patterns. News items are dated and linked to their source. We update this outlook every month.
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